Lars Resort: PL Preview – Relegation

Another PL season is upon us, with only a few days left until the opening match. As we prepare for the drama, action, controversy, lowlights and highlights of another season of English football, Lars has taken a closer look at the 2024/24 PL edition. First out, the relegation battle…

Last season saw all three promoted teams go straight back down to the Championship, sparking fears that the gap between the PL and the Football League is growing and proving too difficult to bridge. Looking at the teams that are expected to fight it out to avoid the drop this season, it’s hard to avoid the sense that this could very well happen again. The three newly promoted teams all look rather vulnerable, for different reasons, while their likely competitors in the bottom half of the table look altogether more battle-hardened. Looking at Betsson’s relegation odds, Leicester City, Ipswich and Southampton are the three favourites to finish in the bottom three places – and in truth I’m finding it very hard to argue with that. If not them, then who?

Check Lars’ thoughts on the midtable madness here.
Check Lars’ thoughts on the CL candidates here.

20th place: Leicester City

Odds on staying up: 2.75
Odds on going down: 1.40
Odds on finishing last: 2.75

Reasons for optimism:

Leicester City are by no means the worst team in the league on paper, so this prediction has as much to do with off the pitch matters as anything else. On the pitch there are certainly positives, even if the squad is weaker than the one that got relegated back in 2023. Even with the departure of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, their midfield unit looks pretty solid. With Harry Winks pulling the strings, Wilfred Ndidi adding brawn and industry, and the two likely joined either by the attack-minded Bobby De Cordova-Reid or the more defensively inclined Boubakary Soumare (on loan at Sevilla last season), this is a midfield that should be able to hold its own in this league. A potential back four of Ricardo Pereira, Wout Faes, Jannik Vestergaard and James Justin isn’t too shabby either. Steve Cooper is a well-regarded coach and has some experience battling relegation under challenging circumstances.

Reasons for concern:

There is a very high likelihood that Leicester City will be hit with a significant points deduction this season for breaching profit and sustainability rules the last time they were in the PL. How many points has yet to be determined, with reports in the English press suggesting it could be anywhere from six to fifteen points.

Either way, it would be a huge blow to their survival prospects. And as much as the team looks fairly solid on paper, you have to worry a little bit about their attacking output. Dewsbury-Hall provided 12 goals and 14 assists last season, and you suspect De Cordova-Reid is something of a downgrade. Jamie Vardy was their top scorer last term with 18 goals, but he is now 37 years old and Cooper will have to manage his minutes carefully. Other attacking options include Stephy Mavididi and Patson Daka, but the former is unproven at this level and the latter remains erratic in front of goal. While Steve Cooper is a capable manager, keeping last season’s promotion-winning boss Enzo Maresca would obviously have been preferable.

Verdict:

If it hadn’t been for the PSR case hanging over their heads I would have actually given Leicester a reasonable shot at staying up. They look to me like the most promising of the three newly promoted teams.

But the prospect of them having points deducted, possibly even double figures, makes it very hard to back them to survive.

19th place: Ipswich

Odds on staying up: 2.00
Odds on going down: 1.70
Odds on finishing last: 3.50

Reasons for optimism:

It’s been an incredible couple of years for Ipswich, who have been promoted twice in two seasons. That rapid ascent made their manager, Kieran McKenna, a wanted man this summer – but the former Manchester United assistant manager decided to stay with Ipswich for the time being. This is obviously a significant boost to their prospects. The club has repaid McKenna by spending a significant amount of money in the transfer market, spending over 60 million pounds on Liam Delap, Jacob Greaves, Arijanet Muric and Omari Hutchinson. Hutchinson spent last season on loan with Ipswich, and his skill and trickery should be an important asset for the team as they look to hurt more illustrious opponents in the PL. It’s also worth keeping an eye out for defender Leif Davis, who was an unexpected and unlikely assist king last season with a whopping 18 assists from left back.

Reasons for concern:

Naturally, with the team having been promoted twice in two seasons, a significant portion of this squad was assembled when the team was still in League One. There is some precedent of teams being promoted with unheralded players and performing above expectation, most notably Sheffield United in the 2019/2020 season, and it doesn’t necessarily follow that just because we haven’t seen a player at this level before he must by definition not be good enough. Still, more often than not, there will be a reason why players are playing in League One or the Championship instead of at a higher level. This is all a very polite way of saying that looking through the Ipswich squad there is an undeniable, if understandable, lack of proven elite level talent. Few established PL opponents will be too worried about facing this squad. That total underdog status can in itself be an advantage, and no doubt Ipswich will spring a few surprises over the course of the season, but it’s very hard to make a rational case for this not being one of the three weakest teams in the league this season – at least on paper.

Verdict:

Ipswich have got a few things going for them. Successive promotions under an impressive young manager – who decided to stay at the club this summer – is nothing to be sniffed at. While newly promoted teams often make wholesale changes to their squad, Ipswich have made a handful of acquisitions, but the core of the team will be largely the same as last season. There could be positives here in terms of squad cohesion and the fact that the players know each other, the coach and the tactics very well already. Still, going through these potential positives for Ipswich does rather feel like grasping at straws.

They’ve done incredibly well to get promoted two times in a row, but this is a different level, and as I see it they will be relying on opponents having problems off the pitch or otherwise disastrous seasons to stay up.

18th place: Southampton

Odds on staying up: 1.50
Odds on going down: 2.35
Odds on finishing last: 8.00

Reasons for optimism:

They had a rocky start to life in the Championship last season under manager Russell Martin, and they reached a point of crisis in September when they lost four games on the bounce. However, they then embarked on a 22 game unbeaten streak in the league, which saw them climb back into promotion contention, and in the end they went up by beating Leeds United in the playoff final. Under former Swansea boss Martin the Saints have adopted a possession heavy approach, and had the highest average possession in the league. They got relegated back in 2023 largely because they overloaded the squad with youth at the expense of experience and know-how, and some of those young players will no doubt have benefitted from a year in the Championship. And they do look a bit more balanced this time around. The three players who played the most minutes last season, Kyle Walker-Peters (27), Adam Armstrong (27) and Jan Bednarek (28) are all in their prime, and in terms of bringing experience and know-how into the squad Adam Lallana (36) is an interesting addition. Lallana, of course, came through the Southampton academy and was the team captain before his move to Liverpool in 2014. This summer, Southampton have spent a good portion of their budget on permanent transfers for last season’s loan stars Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Flynn Downes. Ben Brereton Diaz is another interesting signing, with the Stoke-born Chilean international making a tangible impact up front for a very doomed Sheffield United in the second half of last season.

Reasons for concern:

Boss Russell Martin’s positive, possession-based approach eventually served the team well in the Championship – but playing that style against much more accomplished opponents in the PL can be very difficult. We saw this with Burnley last season, and we’ve seen it with many other newly promoted teams over the years – more than once in the case of Norwich. It’s possible that Martin will pivot and adjust his style to Southampton’s new reality, as Thomas Frank did so impressively at Brentford, but backing a team to succeed by doing something else than the thing that made them successful last season is also a dicey proposition. I’m not convinced that their likely first choice midfield of Flynn Downes and Will Smallbone will be giving too many opposing midfields sleepless nights. There is also the matter of goals, and where they come from. Adam Armstrong led the way last season with a fine return of 24 goals in 47 starts in the Championship, but while Armstrong is a proven goalscorer at Championship level he looked a little bit out of his depth in the PL last time around. Brereton Diaz will be expected to chip in.

Verdict:

Southampton are not no-hopers by any means. They have a lot more PL experience in their squad than Ipswich, and they don’t have a points deduction coming their way like Leicester. I worry about how well their style of play will translate to the PL, and I worry a little bit about where the goals are coming from, but they might actually have the best chance of staying up out of the three.

17th place: Everton

Odds on staying up: 1.50
Odds on going down: 3.00
Odds on finishing last: 8.00

Reasons for optimism:

The reason for optimism is simple: Everton were actually pretty good last season. Without the eight points deducted they would have finished on the same number of points as Brighton and Bournemouth, and just one behind Crystal Palace. Given the problems off the pitch and the limitations of the squad, this was a huge achievement by manager Sean Dyche who proved yet again that – love him or loathe him – he knows what he’s doing. The xG difference actually had Everton as high as 10th last season, but Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Beto’s travails in front of goal meant the team struggled to turn xG into actual G. At one point last season Calvert-Lewin and Beto were statistically the two most underperforming strikers in the league in front of goal, so again you have to give Dyche credit for guiding the team to safety with two strikers both struggling acutely to finish chances. Given the club’s disastrous financial situation they have done well to hang on to most of their good players, even if both Amadou Onana and Ben Godfrey will be missed. And some of the arrivals are intriguing.

Iliman Ndiaye was very good for Sheffield United in their promotion campaign the season before last, and will be glad to be back in England after an unsuccessful stint at Marseille. Jesper Lindstrøm, on loan from Napoli, is an industrious and versatile attacking player who had some great games for Frankfurt before struggling to find his place at Napoli last season. Jake O’Brien, signed from Lyon, is a 6 foot 6’ central defender and seems an obvious fit for a Dyche team.

Reasons for concern:

The collapse of the proposed takeover by the American 777 Group seems a massive bullet dodged in the medium to long term for Everton, with 777 Group continually dogged by accusations of all manner of financial wrongdoings. But it has left Everton without a buyer, as the Friedkin Group became the latest prospective owner to pull out of talks this summer. The club continues to lose money, their current owner is either unwilling or unable to keep funding the losses, and it is not entirely clear that they have the means to keep paying their bills throughout this season. This could, of course, all be solved if the right buyer emerges, but for the time being the situation remains a concern. It also makes it hard to predict Everton’s fortunes on the pitch this season, as sales of key players either in August or particularly in January is still a distinct possibility. On the pitch, goalscoring remains a concern, and Everton fans can only hope that Calvert-Lewin’s late season form (four goals in his last seven games of the season) was a sign of better things to come. Amadou Onana wasn’t ever-present in midfield last term, but his departure for Aston Villa is still a blow.

Verdict:

If not for the issues off the pitch you would say that Everton look solid, Dyche knows what he’s doing, and that they’re no doubt heading for a safe finish – likely somewhere in the lower reaches of midtable.

But the wider situation can’t be ignored. Everton are continuing to lose a lot of money, are still trying to finish building their new stadium, and have been unable to attract a new owner who is willing and able to foot the bill for all of this. It’s hard to see how this situation doesn’t bleed into their league performance this season somehow. Still, as long as Dyche is at the helm you would expect them to stay up at the very least. To paraphrase a line from a popular film about dinosaurs: Dyche finds a way.

16th place: Nottingham Forest

Odds on staying up: 1.35
Odds on going down: 3.00
Odds on finishing last: 8.50

Reasons for optimism:

It seems that chaos is never too far away from any venture involving Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis, but if we ignore the noise and focus on football then Nottingham Forest should be heading into this season in decent shape. In short, they have quite a lot of quite decent players. Their attacking trio of Callum Hudson-Odoi, Morgan Gibbs-White and Anthony Elanga has a fine mix of pace, invention and swagger. While they’re likely to remain a fairly defensive outfit as long as Nuno Espirito Santo, they at least have the attacking personnel to be a really rather fun team. Up front the 32 year old Chris Wood had an unexpected but pleasing resurgence last season, and the 26 year old Nigerian Taiwo Awoniyi is a very capable forward when fit. Forest had trouble keeping clean sheets last season (only the relegated trio of Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United kept fewer), but with the 6 foot 5’ Serbian Nikola Milenkovic joining from Fiorentina to play next to the excellent Brazilian Murillo, Forest should at least have the tools to improve in this aspect as well. Elliot Anderson, signed from Newcastle, should add further dynamism and thrust to midfield. Nuno is not everyone’s favourite manager, but he is an experienced operator and should have the tools at his disposal to turn Nottingham Forest into a fairly capable PL outfit.

Reasons for concern:

Goalkeeping is a major concern. Matz Sels and Matt Turner were statistically two of the three worst goalkeepers in the league last season (this according to stats website Fbref.com), and Forest have opted against making a major investment in this part of the team over the summer. The giant Brazilian Carlos Miguel, all 6 foot 8’ of him, has arrived from Corinthians to provide competition. While Nuno has a respectable track record as a coach, the team didn’t actually improve that much after he took over from Steve Cooper last season. According to the stats website Understat, Wolves generated the second lowest xG in the league after Nuno took over and conceded the third highest xG number down the other end. This is not promising. On paper their squad compares favourably to the other prospective relegation battlers, but Nuno has yet to fully prove that he can knock the squad into a shape that really works. Additionally, the various antics of owner Marinakis can be an unwelcome distraction.

Verdict:

The squad looks decent enough on paper and the team should be absolutely fine, but chaos is never too far away at the City Ground.

The combustible and impulsive nature of their owner means there is no setback that can’t escalate to a crisis, and it makes the whole setup a little bit hard to trust. Still, there is enough quality in the squad to suggest that Forest should avoid the drop.

15th place: Fulham

Odds on staying up: 1.12
Odds on going down: 6.00
Odds on finishing last: 12.00

Reasons for optimism:

Many, including myself, expected Fulham to struggle last season after the departure of their talismanic striker Aleksandar Mitrović. Instead, they claimed a very creditable 13th, staying clear of relegation trouble and taking a few impressive scalps along the way. I’m inclined to credit Marco Silva with some smart management and solid coaching here, as this is a team with few obvious stars that came across as well-drilled and frequently punched above their weight.

The good news for Fulham fans is that this should be repeatable. The squad looks a little bit underwhelming on paper, but then that was the case last season as well and they were completely fine. The big new arrival is Emile Smith Rowe, who after being a regular for Arsenal in the 2021/22 season had become increasingly marginalized and played just 353 minutes last season. Having not played regular football for the last two seasons it’s a little bit hard to know what to expect from Smith Rowe, but when he was playing regularly he did show flashes of real promise. Perhaps a regular starting berth at Fulham is the platform he needs to relaunch his career. Rodrigo Muniz’s big breakthrough for Fulham midway through last season was a big factor in their positive season, and Fulham fans will be hoping for more of the same from the Brazilian this time around.

Reasons for concern:

The obvious note of concern is that Joao Palhinha has left, leaving a hole in midfield that is not easily filled. At the time of writing, Fulham have yet to sign a like-for-like replacement, which has to be a concern. It’s hard to imagine that taking one of the best ball-winners in the league out of this team and not replacing him won’t have a significant impact on the team’s fortunes. Bobby De Cordova-Reid has been allowed to leave the club, and while not always a starter last season he did come up with some very useful goals from midfield for the team. Rodrigo Muniz’s burst of form last season, scoring eight goals in eight games around February and March, was exciting and impressive – but it does rather disguise the fact that he scored once in his other 19 appearances last season (though in fairness, a good number of those came off the bench). There could well be a significant shortage of goals here if Muniz doesn’t fire, which added to a potential loss of defensive solidity due to Palhinha’s departure would be very ominous indeed.

Verdict:

Fulham have some decent players, and last season appeared to be well coached by a smart manager. Comparing their pedigree to those of the three newly promoted teams, you have to say they should be fine. But Palhinha’s departure is a concern and the squad is short on proven goalscorers. You can imagine Smith Rowe striking up a connection with players like Andreas Perreira and Alex Iwobi, making Fulham a watchable team this season. But I also don’t think there are too many things that need to go wrong before this team lands itself in trouble.

14th place: Wolves

Odds on staying up: 1.20
Odds on going down: 4.50
Odds on finishing last: 10.00

Reasons for optimism:

Last season could have gone very wrong for Wolves. To stay on the right side of the PSR regulations, the club cashed in on players like Matheus Nunes, Ruben Neves and Nathan Collins, leaving the squad thin and their manager, Julen Lopetegui, disgruntled and demoralised.

Lopetegui left the club as late as August 8th, leaving the club with a threadbare squad and no manager just days away from the start of the season. Enter Gary O’Neill, who had been dismissed from Bournemouth that summer in spite of keeping them up. Having performed over the odds with an iffy-looking squad at Bournemouth, O’Neill duly did the same at Wolves and guided them to a creditable 14th place finish. The team had to battle injury problems and some unfortunate refereeing decisions along the way, and the season helped solidify 41 year old O’Neills reputation as an excellent firefighting manager. The club has added a batch of young players over the summer, and O’Neill will be hoping he can continue to develop the team this season without constantly feeling shorthanded. While the squad remains on the thin side, Pedro Neto and Matheus Cunha are excellent attackers, Mario Lemina and Joao Gomes are a capable midfield pairing, and goalkeeper Jose Sa is one of the better shot-stoppers in the league.

Reasons for concern:

Wolves have again had to sell this summer, with defender Max Kilman leaving the club for West Ham. No players in the Wolves squad played more minutes than Kilman in the league last season, and the 26 yearold was something of a defensive lynchpin. The club has considered the long-term health of the squad and added youth in the transfer window, which may well be the correct decision for the club but it O’Neill will undoubtedly have been hoping for more established additions to help him out. The form and fitness of Cunha and Neto remain crucial to the team’s prospects.

Verdict:

They have a solid enough spine and a bright young manager with two impressive seasons under his belt. As long as they stay clear of the worst injury problems Wolves should be fine, but Kilman will be missed and the lack of squad depth is still a bit of a worry.

The odds might have changed since the writing and publication of this post.

Last updated: 12.08.24